The Clemson Tigers (record) are heading south to Miami Gardens, FL to face the Miami Hurricanes (record) on Saturday, October 21st. The kickoff is set for 8pm on ACCN. Miami is coming off a road loss to the UNC Tar Heels while Clemson is well rested after an off week.

The Hurricanes haven’t defeated the Tigers since October of the 2010 season. In 2010, Miami beat Clemson 30-21 after Jacory Harris threw four touchdowns, three to WR Leonard Hankerson. Since then, the Tigers have taken the last four meetings including the 2017 ACC Championship Game blowout in Charlotte, NC.

The Doppler

The Tigers are the second most talented team that the Hurricanes will face in the ‘23 regular season. had the highest blue chip ratio at 73%, the Tigers have a 72% BCR. Miami’s BCR is 61%.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ has Miami at a slight disadvantage to Clemson. Overall, Clemson is 13th and Miami is 16th. The Tigers are 28th on offense going up against Miami’s 19th ranked defense. The ‘Canes 23rd ranked offense will have to learn to score against Clemson’s 9th ranked defense. Miami has a huge edge over CU in kicking, with Clemson coming in at 71st and Miami 5th.

Miami is 14th in FBS wit 35.6 points per game. Clemson has scored 25.4 PPG, good for 72nd in FBS. On defense, Clemson has allowed 19.8 PPG which is 25th in FBS. Miami has allowed 21.4 which is 33rd in FBS.

In yards per play (YPP) Miami is 6th overall and Clemson is a lowly 87th. In points per play (PPP) Miami is 17th in FBS, while Clemson is 84th.

Oh the penalties... Miami is currently 117th in FBS with 7.6 per game, while Clemson is 26th with 2.8 penalties / game.

In turnover margin per game, Miami has slid down to 109th after two wildly horrific games. The ‘Canes are currently in the negatives at -0.6 turnovers per game. Clemson on the other hand is 35th in FBS with +0.4 TO Margin.

The Clemson kicking game is a mess. The Tigers kickers are 4-of-10 on field goals this season. But they have had four players kick an extra point, missing only one all year. Their punter, Aidan Swanson, averages 45.1 yards per punt. Will Shipley is still a weapon on kickoffs averaging 20.3 yards per return.

Clemson Offense

We’re going to look at the Clemson game against Florida State to evaluate film. How did FSU knock off Clemson in overtime?

Cade Klubnik has had those five-star moments this season, and those rookie mistake head scratchers. Early in the season it seemed like OC Garrett Riley and Klubnik weren’t on the same page. That’s just proof that all the spring games and scrimmages in the world can’t prepare you for the actual pressure of the competitive event.

Against FSU, Klubnik averaged 7.4 yards per pass attempt with a touchdown while fumbling twice and losing one fumble. Dabo Swinney’s 2022 security blanket, Shipley, scored twice against FSU but was bottled up most of the game. Shipley averaged 3.7 yards per carry with a long of 16, and 9.5 yards per catch with a long of 18.

Power back Phil Mafah hit on 69 yards on 10 carries. WR Tyler Brown was the Clemson explosive play threat until the Wake Forest game. Brown is averaging 14.1 yards per catch.

Against FSU, the Clemson offense finished 6-of-14 on 3rd downs and 1-of-2 on 4th downs. Clemson won the Josh Gattis time of possession award 34:25, but lost the game. The Tigers O-Line allowed three sacks and six TFL’s.

Above- One thing for Miami to worry about is the agility (his cognitive-visual response and physical ability to act and react to a stimulus) of Will Shipley in the open field. If I’m CU I’m finding ways to get him in space against Miami linebackers and drop defensive ends.

Above- Against FSU, Riley kept dialing up the QB draw. Sometimes tagged to swing, sometimes with stick. Klubnik just seems to struggle with that read and his vision (or lack there of) on the run isn’t what Riley is used to.

Above- CU will get in that quads diamond formation knowing Miami is poor at communicating and switching off receivers. Count on it.

Above- Miami putting a defensive end or slow LB on the Clemson TE on a wheel route concerns me. Guidry likes to put those slow guys on faster athletes, it’s not working out for him so far this year.

Above- Again, if DB’s are struggling against Clemson’s skills in space what will Mauigoa and Flagg be able to do?

Above- Blitz Klubnik and he fires a dart to a 1st and goal. Like Van Dyke, Klubnik can throw while being drilled and find the open man.

Above- Now land a second earlier and it’s a scoop and score. Klubnik isn’t above the same cause/effect of any other QB that’s drilled in his chest.

Above- Clemson likes this three puller run and FSU failed on it the 1st go with no safety rotation into the box. The 2nd time they adjust. The LB wrong-arms and squeezes it inside to no help on round one, help on round two.

Clemson Defense

So what did the FSU offense show the Clemson defense that Miami can take advantage of as well?

The Clemson defense came away with two sacks and five TFL’s against the FSU offense. QB Jordan Travis tossed two touchdowns without a turnover on 7.8 yards per attempt. Travis was bottled up by Clemson on the ground, probably a moot point with Tyler Van Dyke at quarterback for Miami.

Clemson’s defense held Trey Benson, the FSU running back, to 3.6 yards per carry. Benson is averaging 7.6 yards per rush in ‘23. Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson and Benson hit on explosive receptions against the Tigers defense. Coleman averaged 17.2 per catch with two scores, Wilson 18.8 per grab and Benson 16.7 per catch.

The Tigers defense held FSU to 4-of-13 on 3rd down and 1-of-2 on 4th down. Clemson failed to create a turnover and turnover margin often is a predictor of success.

Above- Jordan Travis is 100x more mobile than Van Dyke, and even he gets sacked against Clemson. Van Dyke can’t be a sitting duck against Jeremiah Trotter and the Tigers pressure packages.

Above- What is open vs. Clemson? The gap run game. FSU also pulls 2-3 at times and the Clemson defender doesn’t wrong-arm it. He’s no help inside to slow it down and the safety doesn’t rotate down. Miami has to pull and use Cam McCormick as an extra puller. Donald Chaney Jr. might be the main back against CU for gap schemes.

Above- What’s open vs. Clemson? They bite really hard on the fake now screen turned into a glance-spot route. Xavier Restrepo has that one written all over him.

Above- What’s open vs. CU? Keon Coleman. I know Miami doesn’t exactly have a Coleman, but Colbie Young has the size, Jacolby George and Brashard Smith have speed. When do these guys become the ‘Canes Coleman?

The Forecast

Per ESPN, the win expectancy is 52.5% leaning towards Clemson. Miami will be a slight home dog I’m assuming for the game.

1- Play to win. Against Georgia Tech it felt like Miami played to tie the game. Against UNC Miami didn’t have an answer to the Heels 2nd half adjustments.

the Hurricanes need to play to win. Don’t punt in plus-territory, don’t kick field goals inside the +10 unless you’re in certain game clock situations (going into halftime). Take some deep shots, onside kick the opening KO, fake a punt... something!

2- Hit on explosives. The odds of scoring touchdowns drastically increases if the offense hits on two or more explosive plays on the drive. If it’s a field goal you want, that’s one explosive play. In other words, without at least one big play, you’re going to more than likely wind up with ZERO points.

Miami has found their big play threats in Brashard Smith and Jacolby George. Restrepo and Colbie Young are solid 1st down pick up guys and red zone threats- but they’re not averaging 20+ yards per catch against a team like Clemson.

3- Don’t quit. Say what you want but even down 17 to UNC, Miami scored again and had the chance to push with two minutes to go if they recovered that onside kick. The team might be low on Football IQ and discipline- but they have more heart than in years past. Keep that same fighting spirit going into a home game against CU.

Prediction: In the summer I predicted Clemson would win by 14. Clemson wins by 9.